A Sudden Surge in SF Employment Numbers

From the middle of 2015, the Bay Area high-tech boom appeared to appreciably cool down in hiring, IPOs coming on market, venture capital flow and general economic optimism, and that was one factor in the cooling in the SF real estate market. (One local economist predicted "blood in the streets" of San Francisco from a crash in both high tech and real estate.) As to hiring, from 2010 through 2015, San Francisco added an astounding 100,000 new jobs (the Bay Area added 600,000), putting enormous pressure on home prices and rents, but then in the first six months of 2016, that trend reversed itself and the number of employed residents in the city dropped by over 3000. Well, whether it is a short-term, seasonal fluctuation will become clearer soon, but in July, the trend line reversed itself again and the number jumped by 9000 to hit a new all-time high, as illustrated in the above chart.

The SF market definitely shifted gears this past year, from ludicrous overdrive (as Tesla might describe it) to a more reasonable cruising speed, and it has become much more balanced between buyers and sellers, but we certainly haven’t seen any blood in the streets so far. One question now is whether the Bay Area high-tech boom is getting something of a second wind. The change in employment trends is one of the indications we are seeing that it might be, hopefully without the irrational exuberance, but it is far too early to come to any definitive conclusion.