October statistics show no slowdown in SF market

Anecdotal word on the street that the San Francisco market might be slowing down a bit - it appeared the frenzy had diminished somewhat and that fewer listings were selling instantly with ridiculous numbers of competing offers - and the question was whether this would soon show up in the statistics. It hasn't. Though September did see a burst of new inventory that temporarily changed the equation between buyers and inventory, now with October's statistics it's clear the market is still dominated by a high demand/ low supply/ upward pressure on prices dynamic. However, it should be noted that there is a difference in market heat between a listing receiving 1 or 2 offers compared to it receiving 5 to 20 offers, however that difference might not show up in the statistics as long as one good offer is accepted. Comparing September-October sales reported to MLS with the same two months in 2011, SF dollar volume home sales were up 41%; at Paragon, our sales were up over 109%. These are not the signs of an ebbing market, nor are the statistics illustrated above.

Typically, at this time of year, the number of new listings begins to markedly decline in preparation for the slowdown that usually begins at Thanksgiving and runs through mid-January. But I saw very little of the usual summer slowdown this year, so I will see how much market activity slackens during this year's holiday season.

Average Sales Price Jumps The average price is simply the total dollar volume of sales divided by the number of sales. Like median price, it is a general statistic affected by a variety of factors and often fluctuates without great significance on a monthly basis. Among other factors, a decline in distressed home sales and/or an increase in high-end home sales, both of which are occurring now in SF, can have an outsized effect on average sales price. We will see if October's big increase is sustained in future months or is simply one of those anomalous fluctuations which occur in real estate.

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All figures are derived from sources deemed reliable, but should be considered approximate. The data may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. © Paragon Real Estate Group